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Private Markets

How Prediction Markets Are Becoming Financial Infrastructure

Published 7 January, 2026


Prediction markets have exploded from under $100 million to over $13 billion in monthly trading volume, a 100-fold increase that’s reshaping approaches to risk management.

Our Founding Partner Patrice Mesnier recently shared his evolving perspective with Anastasia Chernikova for Forbes, noting how his view has shifted “from scepticism to selective use” over the past year.

Patrice explained that these markets don’t necessarily forecast outcomes better, but they reveal where conviction is forming and breaking. While liquidity and legal structure still limit institutional deployment, prediction markets are becoming a relevant signal in policy-driven environments, particularly as a complement to macro analysis and scenario planning.

With major platforms like Coinbase and Robinhood now integrating these tools, probability itself is becoming a layer of financial infrastructure.

Read the full article here:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2025/12/20/how-prediction-markets-are-becoming-financial-infrastructure/
 
Quotes from Oldenburg

“My view has moved from skepticism to selective use over the past year”.

“These markets do not forecast outcomes better, but reveal where conviction is forming and where it is breaking. Liquidity and legal structure still limit institutional deployment, but as a complement to macro analysis and scenario planning, prediction markets are becoming a relevant signal in policy-driven environments”.

— Patrice Mesnier, Founding Partner